How can Northern Ireland qualify for the 2026 World Cup?

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There is just one game remaining in qualifying and Northern Ireland's World Cup dream is still alive.

Any hopes of automatic qualification were ended on Friday with a 1-0 defeat by Slovakia, who will now battle with Germany for top spot in Group A.

But thanks to Croatia sealing qualification with a victory over Faroe Islands, Michael O'Neill's side are guaranteed a World Cup play-off thanks to their Nations League group win last year.

There is a final home game with Luxembourg to bring the campaign to a close for Michael O'Neill's side on Monday.

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What has happened so far?

Group A table (all sides played five games): Germany 12, Slovakia 12, Northern Ireland 6, Luxembourg 0Image source, BBC Sport
Image caption,

How Group A stands with one game left to play

Northern Ireland started their World Cup bid with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.

Jamie Reid's early opener was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but goals from Shea Charles and Justin Devenny gave Northern Ireland the win.

However, Group A was blown wide open when Slovakia defeated Germany 2-0 in Bratislava.

Many had tipped the Germans to top the group and qualify automatically with ease, but Julian Nagelsmann's side ended the opening round of fixtures bottom of the pile.

They were under big pressure in their second game as Isaac Price brought Northern Ireland level in Frankfurt after Serge Gnabry's opener.

A defensive mistake allowed Nadiem Amiri to score and a Florian Wirtz stunner, both of which came in the space of three minutes, saw the Germans through on the night.

In the other game, Slovakia needed a 90th-minute winner from Tomas Rigo to battle past Luxembourg.

Then, in October, Northern Ireland cruised to a deserved 2-0 win at home against Slovakia courtesy of an own goal from Patrik Hrosovsky and a late stunning lob from Trai Hume to keep their hopes of a top two finish alive.

Germany picked up a resounding 4-0 victory against 10-man Luxembourg before their visit to Belfast three days later.

O'Neill's side produced a spirited display but ultimately fell to a 1-0 defeat against the Germans as Nick Woltemade scored his first goal for his country in their second game of the window.

Tomas Bobcek scored an injury-time winner for Slovakia in Kosice to beat Northern Ireland while in Luxembourg, Germany ran out 2-0 winners thanks to a double from Woltemade.

Those results leave Slovakia and Germany level on 12 points at the top of the group and set to meet each other on Monday to determine who will win Group A and qualifying automatically.

Northern Ireland welcome Luxembourg to Belfast on Monday in their final group game.

Who could Northern Ireland face in the play-offs?

Potential World Cup play-off pot seedingsImage source, BBC Sport/Getty Images
Image caption,

The projected pots for seeding for the World Cup play-offs with two rounds of fixtures remaining

With a play-off spot now confirmed for Northern Ireland, there is a clearer picture of who they could face in March.

The 12 runners-up in qualifying will be joined by four Nations League group winners, and they will be split into four paths - which each contain a semi-final and a final.

With NI now confirmed to finish third in the group and qualify for the play-offs as a Nations League group winner, they would be ranked in pot four.

That would mean a semi-final against one of the pot one teams.

Seedings will be taken from the Fifa world rankings after qualifying has concluded but, as things stand before the final window, that would be one of Italy (9th in rankings), Turkey (26th), Ukraine (27th) or Poland (33rd).

The play-off final is an unseeded draw, which means if Northern Ireland can negotiate a tricky away first tie, the final could be at Windsor Park.

What's next for Northern Ireland?

Trai Hume celebratesImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Trai Hume scored a stunning second goal as Northern Ireland beat Slovakia 2-0 in their first game of the October window

Northern Ireland finish their campaign at home to Luxembourg on 17 November.

You can watch both games on BBC Two NI, BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app.

If they reach the play-offs, one-legged semi-finals and a final will take place in March before the finals in the USA, Mexico and Canada start in June.

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